Theory of Change (ToC)

Introduction

The Theory of Change (ToC) is a methodological tool to analyse and evaluate the social change that an organisation aims to create as a result of their interventions. It shows a causal pathway from the inputs required for specific activities that lead to tangible outputs and outcomes.

Why

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• As an organisation, you want to ensure that all your activities are aligned to your overall vision.
• You need to showcase the change you want to create and the steps involved in making that change happen.
• It helps you to measure your impact.

What you can expect

In eight steps this toolkit will guide you towards a Theory of Change. Here you will find a step-by-step guide, tools, examples and other resources for making a ToC.

Step 1: Establish Need

• A Theory of Change should be built together with leadership, key staff, but also beneficiaries.
• Discuss the importance of defining the specific changes you aim to create and the steps that lead towards it. The ToC will bring clarity to your programme designs and future planning, and can help you articulate your work to potential funders, partners, benefiaries, and team members.

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Step 2: Defining the Impact

• The impact is the end point of the Theory of Change and is the overall change the organisation wants to create, similar to your vision.
• Discuss in detail and outline how that change will look and how that change will happen.
• It is important that the team understands how their activities plug-in into the bigger change.
• Watch the video below in which Chris Gaines describes how Theory of Change helps you to describe your impact.

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Step 3: Mid & Short term Outcomes

• Once you have identified the long-term outcomes, move backwards to a narrower focus, asking: What has to happen in order for this to be achieved?
• The mid-term outcomes describe changes in behavior, lifestyle or decision making of the beneficiaries.
• Short term outcomes refer to specific changes in knowledge, resources, skills and abilities.

Step 4: Activities & Outputs

• List all the activities that need to happen in order to achieve the identified outcomes.
• You may realise at this point that additional or different activities are required to create the desired change, or that it is unclear whether all activities are leading to the outcomes.
• Each activity should produce specific outputs, which are tangible and easy to track in numbers.

Step 5: Long-term Outcomes

• Start at the end of the ToC timeline and then move backwards.
• Articulate first the long-term outcome-- the broad changes you expect to see for your beneficiaries a few years after your intervention.

Step 6: Inputs

• The last step is to understand what resources (financial, time, skills and knowledge) need to be provided by the organisation in order to conduct the required activities effectively.
• Check which resources you already have and what skills, knowledge and other resources you need to acquire.
• Evaluate opportunities for partnerships to fill gaps.

Step 7: If-then Test

• Try to establish links between sections using the “if-then test”.
• Check the accuracy of the statement: “If we do X, then Y will happen” for each link.
• Try to answer the following questions:
  • What actually changes as a result of our efforts?
  • How significant is this change in achieving our vision?
  • Do we work in the right way with the right people?
  • What do we need to do differently?

Step 8: Identification of Indicators

• In order to measure the impact it is crucial to identify indicators: observable, measurable expressions of outcomes.
• How will you know when you have succeeded? What will you use to measure progress?
• Timeline: What would count as progress/success after 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, and so on?

Key To Success

• Include the leadership team and key staff members into the discussions when building their ToC. 
• Analyse all your activities and if they are contributing towards the change you want to create. 
• If you have gaps in your ToC, explore the possibility of partnering with other organisations to be able to create your intended impact.

Challenges

• Organisations often struggle to articulate the precise change they want to create.
• Organisations do often not have time to step back and reflect critically how their efforts fit into the bigger picture of change.